Futuribili. Rivista di studi sul futuro e di previsione sociale. 2017, n. 1, Vol. XXII
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CONTENTS / SOMMARIO
Gasparini Alberto
Prima parte. La fiera universale: il presente dal futuro previsto nel passato e i vantaggi derivati dal passato prossimo. Esempi e valutazioni
Asimov Isaac
L’expo mondiale del 2014 (o meglio del 2015) vista dal 1964
Boffi Mario, Colleoni Matteo, Lipari Licia, Zajczyk Francesca
L’eredità materiale e culturale dell’Esposizione Universale di Milano 2015
Cosmi Francesca
Lisboa, l’oceano del cambiamento urbano nella città
Seconda parte. Dentro la globalizzazione, dall'Expo al futuro
Maxton Graeme, Randers Jorgen
Scidà Giuseppe
Paradigmi della società globale e invasione degli spazi di vita quotidiana
Barbieri Masini Eleonora
Ecologia umana, luci e ombre. Uno sguardo sul futuro
Nebbia Giorgio
Le popolazioni di merci e il loro futuro
Cipriani Roberto
L’acqua e la religione come fattori di integrazione
Terza parte. Lungo il percorso della rivista "Futuribili", del Club di Roma, della previsione
Ferraro Pietro
È possibile aprire un dialogo sui problemi del futuro? Quale il ruolo di “Futuribili”?
Gasparini Alberto
1994. Perché rifondare “Futuribili” (seconda serie) dopo vent’anni
Gasparini Alberto
Gori Umberto
Aurelio Peccei e il club di Roma: un pioniere degli studi previsionali
Barbieri Masini Eleonora, Ferrarotti Franco, Gallino Luciano, Gori Umberto, Longo Giuseppe O., Papisca Antonio
Sui significati e sull’utilità della previsione. Tavola Rotonda
Quarta parte. Previsione: metodi scientifici, metodi istituzionali
Gasparini Alberto
Cattarinussi Bernardo
Sidelnikov Yury V., Afanasov Michael A., Minaev Edward S.
Multicriterion model of selecting management strategies for UAV design and production
Gasparini Alberto
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EXPO UNIVERSALE, FUTURIBILI E IL “CLUB DI ROMA”, METODI SCIENTIFICI E ISTITUZIONALI
Futuribili, Vol. 22, no. 1, 2017
Alberto Gasparini
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- Publication1994. Perché rifondare “Futuribili” (seconda serie) dopo vent’anni(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)Gasparini, AlbertoIn this editorial, Alberto Gasparini, refounder of “Futuribili” in 1994, shows that 20 years after the demise of “Futuribili” there still is an increasing imperative to inform decision makers of the results of research on the future. While in the late 1970s there was a need to predict the future and come up with answers to social questions, in 1994 reality requires answers to the new questions posed by international changes triggered by the fall of communism. Under such conditions, it is necessary not only to study possible futures, but also to investigate impossible futures to identify their “almost impossible” sides and turn them into possible ones. The aims of new series “Futuribili” are, thus, to resume the project left suspended by Ferraro; gather new scholars around “Futuribili”; strengthen ties with journals such as “Futuribles” and “Futures”; pay close attention to new international themes; reorganise the journal’s structure around theme-based editions under the guidance of guest editors; be more a scientific and cultural forum than a narrowly academic publication and, last but not least, give priority to discussions, dialogue and research which could be linked to some of the international work of the Istituto di Sociologia Internazionale di Gorizia (ISIG), just as the previous series of “Futuribili” under Ferraro had revolved around the Istituto per le Ricerche di Economia Applicata (IREA).
501 509 - PublicationAurelio Peccei e il club di Roma: un pioniere degli studi previsionali(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)Gori, UmbertoThe author describes the cultural and operational context of the Club of Rome, starting from the visionary and innovative figure of Aurelio Peccei. Born in 1908, his story is traced from his childhood in Turin and his employment at FIAT, followed by his career as an international business manager. Together with a group of internationally innovative personalities, in the 1960s he collaborated with Pietro Ferraro in the foundation of “Futuribili”, and in 1968 founded the Club of Rome with Alexander King. In the fraught and contradictory climate of those years, the principle objective of both initiatives was the formulation of predictions which would enable individuals in positions of power to shape the future of the world. The exercise of prediction comprised a number of methods, ranging from intuition to simulation. Carried out according to the latter method, the Club’s first research project saw the light of day in the form of the book The limits to growth (1972). It was a controversial work, attracting, like the Club of Rome itself, a good deal of criticism. The author’s analysis illustrates the method of simulation and the macrovariables used, along with their levels and states of flow. It then turns to the modifications applied to the research in 1992 and 2004, and the subsequent reports of a more qualitative nature. It emerges how over time the Club of Rome became a source of research and operational indications for decision makers and also for educators. Lastly, the author analyses Aurelio Peccei’s testament Club of Rome. Agenda for the end of the Century, published shortly before his death in 1984.
827 1805 - PublicationÈ possibile aprire un dialogo sui problemi del futuro? Quale il ruolo di “Futuribili”?(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)Ferraro, PietroFounder of “Futuribili” in 1967, Pietro Ferraro illustrates the broad context of the journal’s birth – the importance of research on possible futures, the rapid advance of science and technology and its revolutionary effects on social structures. He also considers the contingent context of a small group of scholars gathered around the Istitute per le Ricerche di Economia Applicata (IREA) in Rome. He then examines the crucial support of the French jornal “Futuribles”. The objectives of “Futuribili” are: establishing a broad-based dialogue, setting up interdisciplinary cooperation, forming public opinion on themes connected to the future, exchanging practical experiences, using an appropriate but simple language, opening a dialogue between Italian and foreign authors.
437 413 - PublicationEcologia umana, luci e ombre. Uno sguardo sul futuro(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)Barbieri Masini, EleonoraThe word “ecology” was used for the first time one and a half century ago, in 1866, by the German naturalist Ernst Haeckel to refer to the exchanges of matter and energy between living beings and natural bodies of air, water and soil: an actual “economy of nature”. Ecology remained a chapter of biological studies for a long time until the 1950’s, when radioactive contamination following nuclear tests, toxic pesticides abuse, industrial poisoning and floods were recognized as ecological effects of human activities on nature. Many branches of the discipline have been developed since, such as industrial ecology, vegetal ecology, social ecology, but only an actual “human ecology” can describe the connection between human activities and nature. This paper examines the origin and development of “human ecology” as a branch of social studies. As such the discipline has been taught by the author for some decades at the Gregorian University of Rome. In fact, “human ecology” has found in the Catholic world its truest interpretation. An analysis of the use of the term “human ecology” in several papal encyclicals suggests the changes needed in human behaviour to ensure a “human future” in harmony with Nature.
361 1100 - PublicationFuturibili. Rivista di studi sul futuro e di previsione sociale. Vol. XXII, n. 1, 2017(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)This year marks the 50th anniversary of the appearance of Futuribili in Italy, and for about 40 years it has analysed Italy, the world and prediction methods in the hundred or more editions published from 1967 to 1974 and from 1994 to the present day. There is always “a need for prediction”, but in truth there are historical moments when this need is great and others in which prediction is all but superfluous because future events are implicit in the current orientation. This unevenness in the need for prediction is reflected in the history of Futuribili, coinciding with the forms it has taken over time. If this is the heart of the current need for prediction, for Futuribili it is more essential than ever to rethink its framework and structure, to broaden its target to a large number of groups, to reach a target readership that is sensitive to effective solutions to the problems posed.
378 3717 - PublicationIl lascito delle utopie(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)Cattarinussi, BernardoA century after the creation of the last utopias, it is possible to analyse the overall changes social structures and institutions conceived by utopians have undergone in the modern era. The starting point for written utopias was the indentification of an evil, a single or multiple “social sin”, which was identified as the cause of the pernicious social order against which alternative structures founded on new principles and able to bring happiness to the inhabitants of the future community were suggested. The main function of modern utopias is thus identified in an initial social criticism – latent or manifest – of the socioeconomic conditions of the standing social order. Their analysis of social institutions, such as family, government and social stratification, allows us to distinguish different categories of utopians, based on their desire to eliminate such structures entirely or simply modify their respective weights. The proposals advanced by some authors to exclude certain categories of individuals from the future social order may lead to some considerations on the difficult path of social inclusion.
279 638 - PublicationLet the poor world grow(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)
;Maxton, GraemeRanders, JorgenAfter introducing the concept of globalisation, in the first part of this paper the author reviews the work of sociologists who have developed the study of modernisation to examine the features of contemporary social change revolving around the various paradigms of interpretation of the nascent global society in the 1990s. The second part goes on to exemplify some consequences of globalisation on two levels: macrostructural, with reference to practical economic consequences, and the changes that have overtaken human spaces in everyday life.3706 200 - PublicationLisboa, l’oceano del cambiamento urbano nella città(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)Cosmi, FrancescaLisbon Expo 1998 sparked off deep changes, whose economic effects had both relevant local and national impact. The following essay frames the political dynamics that preceded the event, as well as the architectural execution process and development of the Expo ground later known as Parco dos Nações and, finally, its functional re-utilization according to the latest urban fulfillments. Aside, a digression on the importance of hospitality as tourist reception and welcome policy.
358 1660 - PublicationL’acqua e la religione come fattori di integrazione(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)Cipriani, RobertoThe relationship between water and religion is ancient, has deep roots and takes place along routes that seem to be characteristic for every religious expression. We may come to say that water and religion are almost synonymous: both come from the heavens; the one and the other have to do with time. But above all, there are plenty of strictly religious uses of water as an essential component of some ceremonies, such as blessings, consecrations and exorcisms. Water washes, cleans what is unclean, especially sin. Water is life, purification, regeneration. This gives rise to numerous possibilities of development. Immersion in water is a return to the origins, with an outcome that creates strength and purity. A pilgrimage can involve crossing a river, especially near the place of arrival. However, the most difficult problem to solve remains: there is still a wide gap between those who have sufficient water resources and those who have to look for alternative solutions, with huge efforts and poor results.
456 3357 - PublicationL’eredità materiale e culturale dell’Esposizione Universale di Milano 2015(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)
;Boffi, Mario ;Colleoni, Matteo ;Lipari, LiciaZajczyk, FrancescaThe paper puts forward a critical analysis of the issue of the material and cultural heritage (legacy) of Universal Expositions, devoting particular attention to the last edition of Milan 2015. Theories of scholars who have studied the topic in Italy and abroad will be examined in the light of the findings of the research Experando-Expo 2015. Expectations, chances and projects. The point of view of the students of the Milan Universities.372 972 - PublicationL’expo mondiale del 2014 (o meglio del 2015) vista dal 1964(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)Asimov, Isaac
331 458 - PublicationMulticriterion model of selecting management strategies for UAV design and production(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)
;Sidelnikov, Yury V. ;Afanasov, Michael A.Minaev, Edward S.In this article the mathematical model of the problematic situation of decision making with the group of subjects is examined for the first time. This model is represented in the form of cortege. For the effective and proper selection of the company management strategy the following tasks were preliminarily solved: to find bases for the present-day production efficiency of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV); to examine forecasts according to basic market indices and investment of means for the development of UAVs into the next decade.425 182 - PublicationParadigmi della società globale e invasione degli spazi di vita quotidiana(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)Scidà, GiuseppeAfter introducing the concept of globalisation, in the first part of this paper the author reviews the work of sociologists who have developed the study of modernisation to examine the features of contemporary social change revolving around the various paradigms of interpretation of the nascent global society in the 1990s. The second part goes on to exemplify some consequences of globalisation on two levels: macrostructural, with reference to practical economic consequences, and the changes that have overtaken human spaces in everyday life
294 1350 - PublicationPietro Ferraro. Dalla scoperta di quello che c’è sul confine delle possibilità dell’uomo all’esplorazione del come scegliere i colori del mondo nuovo(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)Gasparini, AlbertoThe author offers a “portrait” of Pietro Ferraro, founder of “Futuribili”. The purpose is to describe the journal’s leading light and to define the characterstics of a generation which, in the 1960s and ‘70s, felt the need to “invent” the future of society and take the responsibility of changing a world in crisis, a world which needed more democracy and a new relationship with an environment otherwise doomed to die. More than university professors, Pietro Ferraro, Aurelio Peccei, Alexander King and Bertrand de Jouvenel were entrepreneurs, directors of international organisations and intellectuals sensitive to the future. Born in Venice in 1908, Ferraro was the owner of dolomite mining companies, the San Giusto cotton mill in Trieste and the Timavo paper mill in Duino, but was also a leading figure in the Resistance to the Republic of Salò, an enthusiastic sportsman and a critic of Keynesian economics (on which he wrote a number of books from 1947 to 1970). Above all he believed in the idea of The construction of the future as a moral duty (his last book), which lay behind his foundation of the journal “Futuribili”. Pietro Ferraro had a complex character, combining a projection towards the future, an almost aesthetic sense of adventure and intellectual curiosity, an absorption in the practice of knowledge, an infusion of deep moral values in the everyday conduct of his businesses, and the pleasure of building a utopian society in which utopia is more of a movement towards perfection than the achievement of perfection itself.
406 799 - PublicationLe popolazioni di merci e il loro futuro(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)Nebbia, GiorgioThe growth and decline of the amount of material goods that enter a market of limited dimensions follow “laws” similar to those ruling the growth and decline of biological populations in a limited environment. It is therefore possible, within certain limits, to forecast the tendency of the production and consumption of commodities on the basis of past trends. The growth and decline of the amount of material goods that enter a market of limited dimensions follow “laws” similar to those ruling the growth and decline of biological populations in a limited environment. It is therefore possible, within certain limits, to forecast the tendency of the production and consumption of commodities on the basis of past trends.
320 213 - PublicationPrevisione e Futures studies(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)Gasparini, AlbertoFollowing a conceptual definition of prediction, emphasising its scientific character, the author concentrates on the links between utopia and prediction, pointing out that modern society is shifting the focus from the “perfection of utopia” to the “workshop of the process”. Unlike traditional society, in modern society change is conceptualised as a normal factor, structurally integrated in the trajectory towards the future, as a result of which it requires different approaches and new methods. The second part of the article is devoted to methods of prediction, reviewing objective and quantitative techniques, qualitative techniques and those which prove to be ambivalent.
416 1088 - PublicationIl ruolo di Igor Bestuzhev-lada nella progettazione istituzionale della previsione a Gorizia e in Italia. Omaggio a Igor Bestuzhev-Lada(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)Gasparini, AlbertoThis tribute to Igor Bestuzhev-Lada takes the form of an analysis of his relationship with Alberto Gasparini: two halves of a whole who carried out a number of initiatives concerning the prediction of the future. In this case, we are interested in those initiatives involving Bestuzhev-Lada which lead to the development of predictive studies in Italy, in particular at the ISIG in Gorizia and at the University of Trieste. As director of the ISIG and of the Department of Human Sciences at the University of Trieste, the author focuses on the efforts to build a network of relations with futurologists and to conduct research on futures studies. Joint initiatives with Bestuzhev-Lada were set up in Madrid, Moscow, Gorizia and Trieste (1990-1992), with exchanges of researchers between Italy and Moscow. The first events (congresses, conferences, summer schools, etc.) started dialogue and thus paved the way for the refoundation of the Italian journal “Futuribili” (1994). The third phase saw the foundation of the International Futures Researches Academy (1999-2000) based in Gorizia, which institutionalised the collaboration with Igor Bestuzhev-Lada and the Russian Futures Studies Academy of Moscow. This actually was a highly complex operation, involving the dissemination in international academic circles of the idea of social prediction, the gathering of support and enrolments, the formulation of initiatives, programmes and of the articles of constitution. The following years saw the launch of activities, first of all at the ISIG in Gorizia and at the RFSA in Moscow, and participation in events by members of IFRA. The activities included the publication of books and of the journal “Fututribili”, complementary research projects in Italy and Russia, joint international summer schools and the organisation of conferences and congresses.
332 525 - PublicationSui significati e sull’utilità della previsione. Tavola Rotonda(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2017)
;Barbieri Masini, Eleonora ;Ferrarotti, Franco ;Gallino, Luciano ;Gori, Umberto ;Longo, Giuseppe O.Papisca, Antonio344 659