Futuribili. Rivista di studi sul futuro e di previsione sociale. 2020, n. 1/2, Vol. XXV

Il presente numero di FUTURIBILI (n. 1-2, 2020) tratta di due macro-temi e di cinque grandi problemi per il futuro. I due macro-temi riguardano anzitutto i significati e i valo-ri: di grandi civiltà dell’Oriente e dell’Occidente, dell’Europa vista da dentro e da fuori, e della “Grande Guerra Patriottica” della Russia. Il secondo macro-tema riguarda i “Piani Marshall” economici delle aree ricche a favore (ma anche e/o inconsapevolmente a sfavore) dei paesi poveri. Un’altra parte di questo numero di FUTURIBILI tratta di “quattro grandi problemi” per il futuro. Essi riguardano la nuova cultura che viene dalle nuove tecnologie e il potere conseguente, la seconda rivoluzione della longevità espressa dagli anziani, il ruolo dei presupposti nelle scienze sociali, come si realizza “l’osare” delle strategie per cambiare il clima e l’ambiente, e infine l’espansione dell’umanità terrestre verso la Luna e le tecnologie che la permettono. Ovviamente questi “grandi problemi” possono essere affrontati in un lungo lasso di tempo, compreso nel corrente Ventunesimo secolo, almeno secondo alcuni autori di questa parte. La terza parte di questo FUTURIBILI tratta delle possibilità e delle difficoltà di realizzare i Piani Marshall delle aree ricche a favore (e a sfavore) dei paesi poveri.

Under the pressure of the inevitable threat of worsening natural living condi-tions on Earth, mankind will first try to redistribute the developed terrestrial territories and resources, and from the middle of the century will begin to create an artificial habitable ter-ritory on the Moon. To mobilize all resources for space exploration, the political unification of mankind will be completed and the military-industrial complex will be reoriented. Robots will be actively used in all industries. Robots will build habitable spaces on the moon. In the second half of the century, a transport system – an elevator – will be built between the Earth and the Moon, and a massive migration of people to the Moon will begin. The most important cultural values of humanity will be transported to the moon.

Questo numero di FUTURIBILI tratta di due macro-temi e di cinque grandi problemi per il futuro. I due macro-temi riguardano anzitutto i significati e i valori: di grandi civiltà dell’Oriente e dell’Occidente, dell’Europa vista da dentro e da fuori, e della “Grande Guerra Patriottica” della Russia. Il secondo macro-tema riguarda i “Piani Marshall” economici delle aree ricche a favore (ma anche e/o inconsapevolmente a sfavore) dei paesi poveri. Un’altra parte di questo numero di FUTURIBILI tratta di “quattro grandi problemi” per il futuro. Essi riguardano la nuova cultura che viene dalle nuove tecnologie e il potere conseguente, la seconda rivoluzione della longevità espressa dagli anziani, il ruolo dei presupposti nelle scienze sociali, come si realizza “l’osare” delle strategie per cambiare il clima e l’ambiente, e infine l’espansione dell’umanità terrestre verso la Luna e le tecnologie che la permettono. Ovviamente questi “grandi problemi” possono essere affrontati in un lungo lasso di tempo, compreso nel corrente Ventunesimo secolo, almeno secondo alcuni autori di questa parte. La terza parte di questo FUTURIBILI tratta delle possibilità e delle difficoltà di realizzare i Piani Marshall delle aree ricche a favore (e a sfavore) dei paesi poveri.

This article presents the survey results of Russian students and schoolchildren regarding historical memory. 1,885 schoolchildren and 10,065 students were interviewed during the project. The fieldwork was conducted online and the research was completed in March 2020, on the eve of 75th anniversary of the Great Victory. The results of the online survey allow us to declare the influence of gender, educational and age factors to patriotic atti-tudes of the respondents. The term patriotism is used as one of the key words for the analysis; it is featured as a polysemantic conception of the worldview and ideological attitudes of the Soviet people during The Great Patriotic War and afterwards of contemporary youth. The article is focused on individual as well as general historical memory, concerning every young person who tries to comprehend this historical event. The answers of respondents allow the drawing of conclusions concerning the worldview of Russian adolescents and an indication of the influence of common history and various agents of socialization on their worldview.

What does Europe mean for Europeans, for many parts of Europe or places out-side Europe where there are social groups of European origin? The paper attempts to answer these questions through research carried out on fourteen samples of ethnic minorities and ma-jorities of Europeans (2798 interviews) living in the Italian region of Friuli Venezia Giulia (Italians, Slovenes, Friulians), in the Serb region of Vojvodina (Serbs, Hungarians, Slovaks), in the Ukrainian region of Kharkiv (Ukrainians, Russians, Belarussians, Jews), and in the Siberian region of Tjumen (Russians, Ukrainians, Caucasians, Tartars). Each sample was asked about its attitudes to Europe and the meanings of Europa. The main meanings (through attitudes) of Europe were: an area included between the Atlantic Ocean and the Urals, a Christian civilization, the European Union (EU), a common family, the West, the subjugation of some peoples, a common culture, a vague idea. The paper considers the intensity and the relations of all these meanings between the macro-regions, between ethnic groups, and between minorities and majorities. The most important difference among the meanings is due to the macro-regions, first of all, and inside each region the difference between minorities and majorities. At the same level of macro-region also the structure of the meaning is very differ-ent. For example, the most important factor (Factor Analysis) in Friuli Venezia Giulia is very simple (the West, EU, common culture); on the contrary in Vojvodina the first factor is more complex. In the Kharkiv region the structure of the first factor is simpler, but different from the Italian content (that is: Europe is overwhelming some peoples and a vague idea); the most important factor (first) is simple for the groups of the Tjumen region, but the structure of the meanings of Europe is composed of the West and a vague idea.

ella ex Iugoslavia degli anni ’90 sono state combattute le uniche guerre “tradizionali” che si siano avute sul continente europeo dopo il 1945. Pertanto i Balcani, ed in particolare la martoriata Bosnia Erzegovina di quegli anni, sono stati naturale ogget-to di interrogazione e anche di indagine scientifica per cercare di capire i motivi per cui dopo decenni di coesistenza pacifica i vari gruppi etnici siano venuti alle armi, e soprattutto per contribuire a dare a questa area un assetto che potesse prevenire nuovi conflitti. Per questo motivo una ricerca sociologica sulle relazioni tra diverse comunità nel Cantone di Mostar è risultata particolarmente preziosa. Nell’articolo che segue dunque vengono sinteticamente presentate le risultanze di quel fieldwork, che anche se non recente pare rappresentare una situazione per certi versi ancora valida oggi, in cui ricompaiono inconfessabili piani per una nuova spartizione del precario edificio prodotto a Dayton 25 anni fa. Ma l’ambizione di questo testo è di presentare tali risultanze secondo una peculiare ottica, che ha come fo-cus il modo in cui la cosiddetta Comunità internazionale, e quindi nello specifico le classi dirigenti dei Paesi occidentali, tendono a vedere le popolazioni balcaniche. Tale approccio, che usa la vicenda reale di uno scienziato francese del Settecento, ci permette di analizzare non solo la realtà di Mostar di questi anni, ma anche disvela come funzionano le scienze sociali della Modernità, nei loro utili punti di forza, ma anche nei loro magari inconsa-pevoli pregiudizi.

The paper explores the closed spaces of Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon as exceptional disciplinary spaces and how living conditions are reduced to bare life in closed spaces. The disciplinary space of Palestinian refugees is explained through the lens of Foucault’s theory in the form of the plague-stricken town – a metaphor of exceptional disciplinary space. It discusses the methods of strict spatial partitioning – in which the spaces create segregation, immobility, marginalizing of one group or population – throughout the history of the Palestinians’ exile. It also analyzes how tense physical discipline increases bodily surveillance and control. The Palestinian docile-body in such an immobile space is undeniable; the Palestinian docile-body is explained through cheap labour in Lebanon. Then, the bio-powers with different strategies either by law, violence or humanitarian actions lead to the exclusionary process of Palestinian refugees. The next point of the paper is about the impact of disciplinary spaces on the Palestinians’ everyday life in which their life is reduced to the bare bones. This bare life is explained through urban and social exclusion that are both factors of basic rights. In the dimension of urban exclusion the author focuses on how the lack of urban public space affects the socio-economic status of the refugees. FAFO’s (Fagbe-vaegelsens Forsknings/Institute for Applied Social Science) survey regarding the basic status of the Palestinian refugees shows that the percentage of poverty in closed disciplinary spaces is higher in comparison with open spaces. The general conclusion is that discipline in Pales-tinian refugee camps fails to produce better economy, education and better society through the controlling of the body and space. Therefore, as long as the typology of disciplinary power and its techniques is systematically “keeping one group of people in the space of exception”, structural violence will be created and structural violence is equal to the violation of human rights in Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon.

L’analisi si sviluppa sulla base del riconoscimento della centralità dell’e-conomia nella vita di un paese. Nell’intera Europa sud-orientale l’economia è stata total-mente sconvolta a seguito della guerra civile nell’ex-Jugoslavia e ciò ha comportato grandi perdite economiche e sofferenze a tutti i paesi. L’autore esorta una pianificazione imme-diata delle azioni per ricostruire un’economia integrata e globale nell’intera regione, come base per una pace stabile e d1uratura. In particolare, sollecita la UE ad avviare questa iniziativa, auspicando la formazione di una sorta di nuovo “Piano Marshall”. La UE ha non solo la conoscenza che deriva dall’esperienza nell’integrare economie separate, ma anche l’interesse politico, finanziario e di sicurezza, nonché l’affluenza economica per farsi promotrice di una tale iniziativa.

The text discusses the Agenda 2030, the so-called Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations and their chances of implementation. The text does not agree on praising the SDGs, but rather sees them in some sense as a step backwards compared to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), because they make it easier for rich coun-tries to concentrate on their own problems instead of tackling the major global sustainability challenges in international cooperation. From the author’s point of view, the implementation chances for the SDGs are not high. Consideration is then given to whether a Marshall Plan with Africa would offer an opportunity to push forward the implementation of the SDGs, particularly in the case of Africa, where the greatest challenges exist. In fact, a Marshall Plan offers these opportunities, but here again the question arises whether such a plan will ever be implemented. The recently launched “Development and Climate Alliance” of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) suggests a way in which a multi-stakeholder initiative could possibly lead to an approach of promoting a Marshall Plan with Africa and other related international developments, thus making a substantial contribution to the implementation of the SDGs. The text discusses the topics mentioned and related questions.

At the very beginning of the 21st century, humanity has undergone great chang-es and has faced great challenges. These changes and challenges are visible on technological, economic, environmental, and political platforms. Humankind today has more power than it has ever had, and feels more insecure than ever before. This discrepancy between the feeling of power and the feeling of insecurity spurs a “new culture of the global power structure” which is increasingly seeking its new philosophical and cultural authenticity, ideological and political transparency, and a new strategy for the survival of humanity. The multilateral competition of neoliberal capitalism is no longer able to open wider perspectives for the devel-opment of a new global digital economy. Neoliberal capitalism is no longer able to respond effectively to the global political chaos that is increasingly visible and aggressive on the hori-zon of authoritarian populist rhetoric that threatens to grow into the mainstream of global social changes. By creating control networks through high-speed Internet connections with centralised crisis management centres, so-called “smart grids” are created, which include control of sets of high technologies and energy sources (the energy Internet (EI)), Internet of things (IoT), “Smart cities”, articulating a programme of “a new key of technological de-velopment”, a new concept of “public policy”, which requires a new concept of “responsible and progressive capitalism”, which articulates the vision of humankind in the 21st century.

Any expression of rationality is based upon premises, many of which cannot be ultimately justified. The role of these presuppositions becomes particularly important in the domains of the social sciences and the humanities. A philosophical reflection on the founda-tion methodologies of these disciplines can shed light on how to overcome the rigidity of many present conceptual systems, so as to fully grasp the richness and complexity of human action.

L’incapacità dell’Occidente di far fronte alle spese sanitarie e pensionistiche prossime venture e l’avvento di una scienza biomedica avanzata spingeranno la presente generazione verso una direzione obbligata, ossia il tentativo di curare o addirittura invertire almeno parzialmente il processo d’invecchiamento. Ciò sfocerà in un drammatico prolunga-mento della speranza di vita umana, che potrebbe superare ampiamente i limiti fino ad ora imposti dalla biologia. Con conseguenze sociali ancora tutte da studiare. Siamo in procinto di entrare nell’era della “Seconda Rivoluzione della Longevità”, e cioè l’impatto della presente pandemia sull’industria della longevità.

All values are spiritual in their essence, even those that appear to be physical. For all values seek perfection of the whole. The widest and highest perfection is based on the totality and oneness of reality. Such a perfection is comprehensive and inclusive. It is founded on truths that complete other truths rather than compete with them. Despite their vast cultural differences, Eastern and Western values reflect complementary aspects of a unified whole. But the process of developing values in any society depends on its underlying cultural per-spective. The nature of mind is such that it divides and analyses reality, and concentrates on one thing at a time, whereas spirituality is founded on the perception of the whole. This vast difference in underlying cultural orientation helps explain the immense gulf in understanding that has long distinguished and separated the cultures of Asia and Europe.