Futuribili. Rivista di studi sul futuro e di previsione sociale. 2019, n. 1/2, Vol. XXIV
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CONTENTS / SOMMARIO
Gasparini Alberto
EDITORIALE: “Clerici vagantes” e la formazione transdisciplinare per l’Università del futuro.
Salimbeni Fulvio, Dalafi R. Hassan, Vitale Alessandro, Ovadia Moni
“Clerici vagantes”, ovvero il coraggio della libertà e il piacere della curiosità
Van De Woorde Marcel
Radermacher Franz Josef
Gasparini Alberto
Sedimentation of europes: from past to 2050
Barjaba Costa, Barjaba Joniada
The wrong decision at the right time: the future of Europe and the european future of Albania
Poli Roberto
Anticipation: a new thread for the human and social sciences?
Jacobs Garry, Nagan Winston, Zucconi Alberto
Unification in the social sciences. Search for a science of society
Tudor Salantiu
When policy-makers stood still to follow the interests of humankind
Voin Alexander
The geoversal civilization and the unified method of substantiation of scientific theories
Farah Soheil
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- PublicationAnticipation: a new thread for the human and social sciences?(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2020)Poli, RobertoAnticipation is increasingly at the heart of urgent contemporary debates, from climate change to economic crisis. As societies are less confident that tradition will provide an effective guide to the future, anticipatory practices are coming to the foreground of political, organizational and personal life. Research into anticipation, however, has not kept pace with social demand for insights into these practices. The paper outlines the main contributions to the understanding of anticipation from the human and social sciences, focusing in particular on the most recent developments.
175 664 - Publication“Clerici vagantes”, ovvero il coraggio della libertà e il piacere della curiosità(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2020)
;Salimbeni, Fulvio ;Dalafi, R. Hassan ;Vitale, AlessandroOvadia, MoniLa Tavola Rotonda mette a confronto alcuni aspetti dei “clerici vagantes”, interpretati come intellettuali ma anche come espressione di una cultura dell’apertura all’e-sterno e quindi come rifiuto della chiusura al nazionalismo e alla patria. Ciò viene sviluppato da quattro autori secondo modalità specifiche. Fulvio Salimbeni definisce e interpreta i “cle-rici vagantes” come fenomeno dell’Europa medievale di intellettuali (studenti universitari e professori) che passano per le tante istituzioni universitarie, dando luogo a una nuova cultura fondata sugli incontri tra il portatore di differenti carismi ed elaborata dalla scoperta e dalla sintesi tra lingue e culture (latina, greca, araba, ebraica). L’autore d’altro canto sottolinea la ricchezza dagli apporti dal Medioevo che verrà chiuso dalla successiva modernità plasmata dalla chiusura nel nazionalismo e dall’enfasi sulla patria nei secoli dal Seicento in poi. L’autore sottolinea la possibilità della ripresa dallo spirito di apertura nei tempi attuali con la circolazione europea e mondiale di studenti e professori che favoriscono il dialogo (Programmi Socrates ed Erasmus). Hassan Dalafi evidenzia il ruolo degli intellettuali nel mondo arabo-persiano fino al Trecento. Questi diffondono una circolazione di studenti e professori per le Madrase e per le tante corti di regnanti. Con ciò svolgendo due ruoli di formazione delle nuove classi di intellettuali e di formazione delle classi dominanti nelle corti con raffinate “di-sputationes”. Alessandro Vitale sottolinea che la mobilità del pensiero richiede una capacità di essere liberi, e quindi di avere sviluppato il coraggio della liberta. E il “clericus vagans”, per essere tale, ha bisogno di libertà, ma vivere questa richiede quel coraggio che a volte non c’è, ed anzi la libertà fa paura, e ciò capita quando il nazionalismo cristallizza e istituzio-nalizza proprio questa paura della libertà. L’autore sviluppa tale dimensione prendendo in considerazione la situazione dell’uscita dal totalitarismo comunista dei paesi dell’est Europa che a cavallo del Ventesimo secolo e l’inizio del Ventunesimo secolo cercano di fare. L’autore problematizza questo discorso tra paura e coraggio della libertà di uscire dal totalitarismo a seconda che un paese l’abbia vissuto per un lungo periodo o per breve tempo. Moni Ovadia introduce il concetto di esilio per comprendere un’altra dimensione della libertà e del viaggio nella terra del pensiero ma anche nel viaggio nel deserto in cui i confini sono molto mobili. L’autore sviluppa tale discorso ricorrendo alla Bibbia e al dialogo di Abramo e il popolo ebreo con il Santo Benedetto (che è Dio per gli ebrei) che è sempre molto attento a dire che la “terra è mia”, e quindi affermando che la terra promessa non è la terra del nazionalismo (e della stabilità), ma questa terra promessa in realtà è la terra dello straniero, del pensiero, del viaggio, della libertà. Tale lettura del continuo viaggio lo ritroviamo nel Medioevo, sotto le diverse forme ed è comune all’intellettuale ebreo e dei “clerici vagantes”, ma anche in succes-sive epoche l’intellettuale ebreo vive l’esperienza della “glorificazione dell’esilio condiviso con altri popoli come gli armeni, i curdi, i palestinesi, e vi continua queste eredità del viaggio e del movimento”.376 1394 - PublicationEDITORIALE: “Clerici vagantes” e la formazione transdisciplinare per l’Università del futuro.(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2020)Gasparini, AlbertoIl presente numero di FUTURIBILI (n. 1-2, 2019) affronta i quattro seguenti temi che mi sembrano di rilevante importanza per i dibattiti del momento e per il futuro delle relative tematiche: I giovani e la formazione che l’Università deve dare loro per ottenere il pieno impiego; Scenari dell’ambiente e del clima e scenari per l’Unione Europea al 2050; I con-tributi teorici su previsione, anticipazione e la conoscenza delle scienze sociali; Il futuro di una civiltà geoversale.
166 269 - PublicationEducation for full employment. Closing the gap between education and future. University education in crisis? Transdisciplinary approaches in the arts, humanities and sciences(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2020)Van De Woorde, MarcelThe modern approach to University education and research cuts across traditional boundaries. In order to obtain maximum benefit from research effort globally, Universities need to adapt their approaches to the management and organization of research and teaching, to foster transdisciplinary working and promote global mobility for the next generation of students.
237 106 - PublicationFuturibili. Rivista di studi sul futuro e di previsione sociale. Vol. XXIV, nn. 1/2, 2019(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2020)This year marks the 50th anniversary of the appearance of Futuribili in Italy, and for about 40 years it has analysed Italy, the world and prediction methods in the hundred or more editions published from 1967 to 1974 and from 1994 to the present day. There is always “a need for prediction”, but in truth there are historical moments when this need is great and others in which prediction is all but superfluous because future events are implicit in the current orientation. This unevenness in the need for prediction is reflected in the history of Futuribili, coinciding with the forms it has taken over time. If this is the heart of the current need for prediction, for Futuribili it is more essential than ever to rethink its framework and structure, to broaden its target to a large number of groups, to reach a target readership that is sensitive to effective solutions to the problems posed.
189 2331 - PublicationOvercoming the international energy and climate crisis. Methanol economy and soil improvement can close the carbon cycle(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2020)Radermacher, Franz JosefThe global energy and climate crisis can be solved in a way that is compatible with growth and promoting prosperity. The now almost panic-stricken public debates about the end of the world, a planned economy for the climate, the electrification of the entire mobility sector, etc. are not in any way doing justice to the multi-dimensionality of the challenge. The approach described, on the other hand, allows Africa, India and other emerging economies to follow Chìna’s development model - without massive negative impacts on the climate. Following this approach, the SDGs can be implemented by 2050. Three essential elements have to be combined: (1) Methanol economy, (2) soils as carbon stores and (3) carbon offsetting projects promoting SDG implementation. The part of the economy based on fossil fuels can be increased by 50% by 2050 with the proposed approach. By recycling carbon on average four times in the context of a hydrogen/methanol economy, CO2 emissions of the energy sector will be reduced to only about 10 billion tonnes per year (currently 34 billion tonnes per year) - despite significant economic growth. A corresponding investment and conversion program can be realized solely by the fossil energy sector, one of the most powerful economic sectors in the world, by 2050. The necessary investments in methanol and other synthetic fuels amount to around 600 billion EUR per year. Through persistent protection of the rainforests, massive worldwide reforestation, especially on degraded soils in the tropics, through fostering humus formation for agriculture, especially in semi-arid areas, through the use of biochar, etc., forests and soils can become a carbon sink for the remaining 10 billion tons of CO2 per year. At the same time, this increases agricultural productivity and will prove necessary anyway for the massively increasing demand for food in an envi-sioned world in prosperity with 10 billion people. All in all, the carbon cycle can be closed this way. Forestry and agricultural projects play a central role in the Alliance for Develop-ment and Climate launched by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) in 2018. In addition to international climate protection, the alliance also promotes development and thus the social aspect of the path into future. By means of high-quality projects in non-industrialized countries, co-benefits to all SDGs and positive ef-fects on the climate are achieved at the same time. This offers great opportunities for the goal of reaching a world population peak at 10 billion people in 2050, followed by a gradual decline afterwards. The methanol economy, and synthetic fuels in general are the key to the solution described. They are based on cheap desert electricity from the Earth’s sunbelt. Just as the invention of the steam engine 300 years ago was the foundation for fully unfolding the potential of coal to increase the prosperity of humankind, renewable energy technologies combined with the solar potential of large deserts (Desertec 2.0) are the key to getting humankind out of the current impasse regarding development, energy and climate - with a hydrogen/methanol economy as a major basis.
383 337 - PublicationRussian in the context of civilizational theories(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2020)Farah, SoheilThe author examines the scientific positions whether or not Russia is considered as an independent civilization. In particular, he dwells on the cultural opinions of Russian scholars, identifying two extreme perspectives. The first, described by a certain orthodoxy, considers the Russian cultural spirit originated from the space of the earth or the place where the Russians built their civilization; the second cultural view sees the development of knowledge and the formulation of discourses originated from a liberal Western approach of civilization.
177 113 - PublicationSedimentation of europes: from past to 2050(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2020)Gasparini, AlbertoIn this article the author considers Europe to be the result of the sedimentation of many united Europes, starting from the Roman and Carolingian empires, which provide a number of attempts at united Europes: the former with its centre in the south of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, the latter with its centre in northern Europe. From these attempts at least two Europes began, ultimately producing the present European Union (EU). The first united Europe was made up of a range of European states and was set up by the knightly, noble and feudal classes with the spread of similar styles, structures, religions (Chris-tianity) and powers. This was followed by a second united Europe based on nation-states and modern empires; fruit of the Enlightenment, it was formed in each one by the intellectual classes and then by the entrepreneurial, commercial and financial classes which characterised Europe until the First World War. The third united Europe is the one which emerged from new values – peace and the individual – and is legitimised by a civil society made up of organisations working upwards from the grass roots. Emerging from the aftermath of the Second World War, this third united Europe is still developing. For how long? For as long as possible, it is to be hoped. The second part of the article takes a long look at the future of this third united Europe, analysing four scenarios projected up to 2050. Starting from the present scenario, scenarios for the future are worked out. We can define them in the following ways: 1) the pure catastrophic scenario: it sees the disappearance of the United Europe or this becomes an empty shell; 2) the realistic catastrophic scenario: it sees the United Europe to become an entity in which internal asymmetrical relations take form, completely open towards the strong-est states and close enough (for the circulation and rules) towards the internal peripheral or smaller states or more little, operating a kind of colonialism; 3) the realistic ideal scenario: it sees that the United Europe keeps the “promises” made and the “premises” from which it is born, except that its member states are still strong and their “reserve of powers”. Outwards the EU always remains and keeps the features of an International Organisation; 4) finally the pure ideal scenario: it sees the transformation of the EU in a federal state, in which the sovereignty of the federate state remains more and more soft so much that it disappears, at least in the aspects of general coordination and of the management of the EU general policies. The discussion of the four scenarios verifies which of them will be carried out in the future: after 10 years, 20 years, 30 years. 40 years. It is more likely that the fifth scenario occurs, that is a scenario that collects elements from each of the scenarios considered before and it assumes a further configuration with respect to those are forecast.
219 528 - PublicationThe geoversal civilization and the unified method of substantiation of scientific theories(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2020)Voin, AlexanderThe problems and threats facing humanity in the age of globalization require the unification of efforts of all peoples on the basis of a universal human value system and mutual understanding in ideas about the right path for further development. This is hindered by the lack of a common language, common to all system of concepts and a method of substantiating conclusions. The article shows that such a common language can only be the unified method for substantiating scientific theories developed by the author. The Chinese phi-losopher Zhang Shaohua, during the 5th World Congress of Geoversal Civilization, held on 16-21.7.2018 in Nairobi, developed the draft of the geo-global civilization. The task posed by the draft is the elimination of the contradictions of modern humanity (people, ideologies, etc.) which lead to numerous armed conflicts and the destruction of the environment. In this article I will discuss about the new value system proposed in which morality and responsibil-ity will replace the pursuit of material goods and selfishness.
158 569 - PublicationThe wrong decision at the right time: the future of Europe and the european future of Albania(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2020)
;Barjaba, CostaBarjaba, JoniadaOn 17-18 October 2019, the European Council failed to reach a consensus to open accession negotiations with Albania and Northern Macedonia, as recommended by the European Commission, the German Bundestag and the majority of EU member states. The veto of France, Denmark and the Netherlands “sabotaged” the required consensus of 28 members. This was a visibly wrong decision, in contrast with the achievements of both coun-tries, their vision and expectations for Europe, and European identity and values of the West-ern Balkans. Such a decision renders the European integration of Albania and the region more difficult. If the European Council remains reluctant to open negotiations because of President Macron’s veto, it will affect the European future of the Western Balkans as well as Europe’s future, nourish the existing negative stereotypes in the region, give the EU attitude towards some countries of the region a religious connotation, increase the gap between NATO and EU integration and pave the way for the domination of non-Western civilizations in the region.275 398 - PublicationUnification in the social sciences. Search for a science of society(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2020)
;Jacobs, Garry ;Nagan, WinstonZucconi, AlbertoThe social sciences have contributed significantly to humanity’s remarkable pro-gress over the past two centuries, but the multidimensional crises confronting the world today reflect the need to rapidly move beyond the limitations imposed by the compartmentalization of social science disciplines and the absence of common unifying principles equivalent to those in the natural sciences. Unification of apparently disparate phenomena is a central characteristic of advancing knowledge. Pressing global challenges compel the search for greater knowledge of the unity underlying the diverse fields of social activity, the objective and subjective dimensions of human experience, the role of the collective and individual in social evolution, the action of conscious and unconscious social processes, and the influence of the future on the present.123 165 - PublicationWhen policy-makers stood still to follow the interests of humankind(EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, 2020)Tudor, SalantiuThis paper is a theoretical discussion about the how classical paradigms of international relations relate to new challenges in general. In particular, we are interested in how classical paradigms perceive and understand the extreme events described through climate changes in the framework of international policy. For this, we develop an argument that the joint impact of global agenda issues and the pursuit of traditional policy logic in globaliza-tion will only create “losers” in the long term.
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