Futuribili. Rivista di studi sul futuro e di previsione sociale. 2017, n. 1, Vol. XXII

This year marks the 50^th anniversary of the appearance of Futuribili in Italy, and for about 40 years it has analysed Italy, the world and prediction methods in the hundred or more editions published from 1967 to 1974 and from 1994 to the present day. There is always “a need for prediction”, but in truth there are historical moments when this need is great and others in which prediction is all but superfluous because future events are implicit in the current orientation. This unevenness in the need for prediction is reflected in the history of Futuribili, coinciding with the forms it has taken over time. If this is the heart of the current need for prediction, for Futuribili it is more essential than ever to rethink its framework and structure, to broaden its target to a large number of groups, to reach a target readership that is sensitive to effective solutions to the problems posed.

In this article the mathematical model of the problematic situation of decision making with the group of subjects is examined for the first time. This model is represented in the form of cortege. For the effective and proper selection of the company management strategy the following tasks were preliminarily solved: to find bases for the present-day production efficiency of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV); to examine forecasts according to basic market indices and investment of means for the development of UAVs into the next decade.

In this editorial, Alberto Gasparini, refounder of “Futuribili” in 1994, shows that 20 years after the demise of “Futuribili” there still is an increasing imperative to inform decision makers of the results of research on the future. While in the late 1970s there was a need to predict the future and come up with answers to social questions, in 1994 reality requires answers to the new questions posed by international changes triggered by the fall of communism. Under such conditions, it is necessary not only to study possible futures, but also to investigate impossible futures to identify their “almost impossible” sides and turn them into possible ones. The aims of new series “Futuribili” are, thus, to resume the project left suspended by Ferraro; gather new scholars around “Futuribili”; strengthen ties with journals such as “Futuribles” and “Futures”; pay close attention to new international themes; reorganise the journal’s structure around theme-based editions under the guidance of guest editors; be more a scientific and cultural forum than a narrowly academic publication and, last but not least, give priority to discussions, dialogue and research which could be linked to some of the international work of the Istituto di Sociologia Internazionale di Gorizia (ISIG), just as the previous series of “Futuribili” under Ferraro had revolved around the Istituto per le Ricerche di Economia Applicata (IREA).

The relationship between water and religion is ancient, has deep roots and takes place along routes that seem to be characteristic for every religious expression. We may come to say that water and religion are almost synonymous: both come from the heavens; the one and the other have to do with time. But above all, there are plenty of strictly religious uses of water as an essential component of some ceremonies, such as blessings, consecrations and exorcisms. Water washes, cleans what is unclean, especially sin. Water is life, purification, regeneration. This gives rise to numerous possibilities of development. Immersion in water is a return to the origins, with an outcome that creates strength and purity. A pilgrimage can involve crossing a river, especially near the place of arrival. However, the most difficult problem to solve remains: there is still a wide gap between those who have sufficient water resources and those who have to look for alternative solutions, with huge efforts and poor results.

This tribute to Igor Bestuzhev-Lada takes the form of an analysis of his relationship with Alberto Gasparini: two halves of a whole who carried out a number of initiatives concerning the prediction of the future. In this case, we are interested in those initiatives involving Bestuzhev-Lada which lead to the development of predictive studies in Italy, in particular at the ISIG in Gorizia and at the University of Trieste. As director of the ISIG and of the Department of Human Sciences at the University of Trieste, the author focuses on the efforts to build a network of relations with futurologists and to conduct research on futures studies. Joint initiatives with Bestuzhev-Lada were set up in Madrid, Moscow, Gorizia and Trieste (1990-1992), with exchanges of researchers between Italy and Moscow. The first events (congresses, conferences, summer schools, etc.) started dialogue and thus paved the way for the refoundation of the Italian journal “Futuribili” (1994). The third phase saw the foundation of the International Futures Researches Academy (1999-2000) based in Gorizia, which institutionalised the collaboration with Igor Bestuzhev-Lada and the Russian Futures Studies Academy of Moscow. This actually was a highly complex operation, involving the dissemination in international academic circles of the idea of social prediction, the gathering of support and enrolments, the formulation of initiatives, programmes and of the articles of constitution. The following years saw the launch of activities, first of all at the ISIG in Gorizia and at the RFSA in Moscow, and participation in events by members of IFRA. The activities included the publication of books and of the journal “Fututribili”, complementary research projects in Italy and Russia, joint international summer schools and the organisation of conferences and congresses.