Futuribili. Rivista di studi sul futuro e di previsione sociale. 2017, n. 1, Vol. XXII

This year marks the 50^th anniversary of the appearance of Futuribili in Italy, and for about 40 years it has analysed Italy, the world and prediction methods in the hundred or more editions published from 1967 to 1974 and from 1994 to the present day. There is always “a need for prediction”, but in truth there are historical moments when this need is great and others in which prediction is all but superfluous because future events are implicit in the current orientation. This unevenness in the need for prediction is reflected in the history of Futuribili, coinciding with the forms it has taken over time. If this is the heart of the current need for prediction, for Futuribili it is more essential than ever to rethink its framework and structure, to broaden its target to a large number of groups, to reach a target readership that is sensitive to effective solutions to the problems posed.

The relationship between water and religion is ancient, has deep roots and takes place along routes that seem to be characteristic for every religious expression. We may come to say that water and religion are almost synonymous: both come from the heavens; the one and the other have to do with time. But above all, there are plenty of strictly religious uses of water as an essential component of some ceremonies, such as blessings, consecrations and exorcisms. Water washes, cleans what is unclean, especially sin. Water is life, purification, regeneration. This gives rise to numerous possibilities of development. Immersion in water is a return to the origins, with an outcome that creates strength and purity. A pilgrimage can involve crossing a river, especially near the place of arrival. However, the most difficult problem to solve remains: there is still a wide gap between those who have sufficient water resources and those who have to look for alternative solutions, with huge efforts and poor results.

In this article the mathematical model of the problematic situation of decision making with the group of subjects is examined for the first time. This model is represented in the form of cortege. For the effective and proper selection of the company management strategy the following tasks were preliminarily solved: to find bases for the present-day production efficiency of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV); to examine forecasts according to basic market indices and investment of means for the development of UAVs into the next decade.

Following a conceptual definition of prediction, emphasising its scientific character, the author concentrates on the links between utopia and prediction, pointing out that modern society is shifting the focus from the “perfection of utopia” to the “workshop of the process”. Unlike traditional society, in modern society change is conceptualised as a normal factor, structurally integrated in the trajectory towards the future, as a result of which it requires different approaches and new methods. The second part of the article is devoted to methods of prediction, reviewing objective and quantitative techniques, qualitative techniques and those which prove to be ambivalent.