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Somalia: dal Collasso dello Stato alla Transizione Permanente
Battera, Federico
Donelli, Federico
2025
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Abstract
Somalia is today one of the most emblematic cases of state crisis and perma¬nent transition. Since the fall of the Siyaad Barre regime (1991) the country has experienced clan fragmentation, civil war and the emergence of radical political Islam, with the Shebaab as the main security challenge. Attempts at institutional reconstruction – from the TNG to the current federal model – have produced limited results, while some local realities such as Somaliland and Puntland have developed hybrid forms of governance that are relatively stable and rooted in tradition. The international community, oscillating between support for central government and recognition of peripheral entities, has failed to overcome structural fragilities. In recent years, extra-regional actors such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey have increased their influence, turning Somalia into an arena of geopolitical competition. A complex picture emerges, characterized by persistent instability but also by local experiments in stability and consolidation.
La Somalia è oggi uno dei casi più emblematici di crisi statuale e transizione permanente. Dalla caduta del regime di Siyaad Barre (1991) il paese ha conosciuto fram¬mentazione clanica, guerra civile e l’emergere dell’islam politico militante, con gli Shebaab come principale sfida alla sicurezza. Tentativi di ricostruzione istituzionale – dal TFG all’attuale modello federale – hanno prodotto risultati limitati, mentre alcune realtà locali come Somaliland e Puntland hanno sviluppato forme di governance ibride, relativamente stabili e radicate nella tradizione. La comunità internazionale, oscillando tra sostegno al governo centrale e riconoscimento delle entità periferiche, non è riuscita a superare le fragi¬lità strutturali. Negli ultimi anni, attori extra-regionali quali Qatar, Emirati Arabi Uniti e Turchia hanno accresciuto la propria influenza, trasformando la Somalia in un’arena di competizione geopolitica. Ne emerge un quadro complesso, caratterizzato da instabilità per¬sistente ma anche da esperimenti locali di stabilità e consolidamento.
Somalia is today one of the most emblematic cases of state crisis and perma¬nent transition. Since the fall of the Siyaad Barre regime (1991) the country has experienced clan fragmentation, civil war and the emergence of radical political Islam, with the Shebaab as the main security challenge. Attempts at institutional reconstruction – from the TNG to the current federal model – have produced limited results, while some local realities such as Somaliland and Puntland have developed hybrid forms of governance that are relatively stable and rooted in tradition. The international community, oscillating between support for central government and recognition of peripheral entities, has failed to overcome structural fragilities. In recent years, extra-regional actors such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey have increased their influence, turning Somalia into an arena of geopolitical competition. A complex picture emerges, characterized by persistent instability but also by local experiments in stability and consolidation.
Publisher
EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste
Source
Federico Battera e Federico Donelli, "Somalia: dal Collasso dello Stato alla Transizione Permanente" in: "Futuribili. Rivista di studi sul futuro e di previsione sociale. 2024, n. 1/2, Vol. XXIX", EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, Trieste, 2025, pp. 19-31
Languages
it
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it
Rights
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
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02_Somalia- dal Collasso dello Stato alla Transizione Permanente.pdf
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