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La ricchezza delle nazioni nel XXI secolo
Giarini, Orio
2024
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Abstract
The word “growth” is on everyone’s lips, as if the Club of Rome had never existed and had never once spoken of limits to growth. What this means is that we are engaged in a thorough rethinking of the meaning of wealth, the value of society and economic value. Economics as we understand it was in a way founded by Adam Smith, who in 1776 published “The Wealth of Nations” (Smith 2010). Underlying the birth of modern economics is a need to express an ethical impulse. Adam Smith created economics. Perhaps Aurelio Peccei was another Adam Smith. Smith observed the rapid development of what came to be called the industrial manufacturing society. The opening pages of his book describe the production of a pin. It starts with the raw material, iron, which is subjected to a number of different processes, seventeen in all, leading to the final product. This was an ethical mission, something Smith was able to analyse and extrapolate with the basic message that with a certain type of organisation it was possible to make a whole range of tools, such as looms and the spinning jennies which would produce the textiles required for weaving. The report by the Club of Rome, written in 1980 by the author of this article, entitled “Dialogue on Wealth and Welfare”, emphasises the need to achieve a synthesis between the economy and ecology. Economics and the economic theories employed today have never been the result of an analysis of economic activity, that is to say how to use resources. Economics has never been perfect, it rather concerned itself with what may be termed priorities. The great difference between Adam Smith’s world in 1776 and 2008 is that manufacturing is no longer a determining force in wealth creation. We have entered a time when doubts must be raised about, and a replacement found for, the concept of value on which the calculation of such things as gross domestic product is based. The simple statement that something is certain does not make it true. The most we can say is “There is a certain probability that the question is defined in a manageable way” from a managerial point of view. This is not a quest for uncertainty or certainty, it is the management of an uncertainty bound up with life, with what we are, with what constitutes progress. Futuribili – “Futuribles” – is the name given many years ago to an intuition on the part of Bertrand de Jouvenel. Whence the name? The question is not one of a deterministic future because there are alternatives, and because there is uncertainty there is freedom. There is no need to fear uncertainty in our lives. Uncertainties are the space that must be understood, reduced and used to create the future. Whenever a step forward is made in technology and in consciousness, what Pascal said comes about. Risk management, instead of reducing risks, gives rise to situations of fundamental uncertainty. Which means we must be able a) to acknowledge that what we do, in economic activity first of all, is based on the management of uncertainty, and b) to reduce uncertainty, which can be controlled but never eliminated altogether. Life is not based on that. All evolution is based on constant adaptation in an environmental uncertainty that changes species – that may even be changing us at this moment. Economics, as Adam Smith maintained, is of crucial importance for society in its wish to create the wealth of nations. That has to be made clear, because without wealth, poverty cannot be defeated. Then there is the problem of social injustice and the distribution of wealth – discussed by the author – and the growing global population. In 2050 there will be nine billion human beings on Earth, which will bring social consequences in terms of migration, age balance, class relations and many other factors.
La parola “crescita” è sulla bocca di tutti, è come se il Club di Roma non fosse mai esistito e come se non avesse parlato un tempo dei limiti della crescita. Comunque questo vuol dire qualcosa d’altro, e cioè che siamo in una fase piena di ripensamento di cosa è la ricchezza, del valore nella società, del valore economico. L’economia, come oggi la conosciamo, è stata in un certo senso fondata da Adam Smith, che nel 1776 ha pubblicato il libro intitolato “La ricchezza delle nazioni” (Smith 2010). Alla base della nascita dell’economia moderna c’è questo bisogno di esprimere una pulsione etica. Adam Smith ha creato l’economia. Forse Aurelio Peccei è stato un altro Adam Smith. Adam Smith osservava il pieno sviluppo di quello che poi si sarebbe chiamata “la società industriale manufatturiera”. Infatti, nelle prime pagine del suo libro, descrive come si fabbrica un ago. Dice che è necessaria la materia prima, il ferro, poi che il materiale sia sottoposto a diversi trattamenti, fino ad arrivare alla fabbricazione dell’ago. Per questo processo di fabbricazione sono necessarie 17 diverse fasi di lavorazione, una diversa dall’altra, fino ad arrivare al prodotto finale. Era una missione, dunque, etica, e una realtà che lui è stato capace di analizzare ed estrapolare sostanzialmente dicendo che agendo in una certa maniera, era possibile fabbricare tante attrezzature, come ad esempio i telai per la tessitura, le macchine per costruire i fili che a loro volta avrebbero costituito i tessuti, ecc. Nel rapporto del 1980 del Club di Roma, scritto dall’autore di questo articolo, intitolato “Dialogo sulla ricchezza ed il benessere”, una delle cose più importanti, è che è necessaria una sintesi fra economia ed ecologia. L’economia e le teorie economiche che oggi si utilizzano non sono il risultato di un’analisi dell’attività economica, cioè di come utilizzare le risorse. L’economia non è mai stata perfetta, ma si occupava di quelle cose che si possono chiamare “priorità”. La grande differenza fra i tempi di Adam Smith del 1776 e il 2008 è che le attività manufatturiere non sono più determinanti nella creazione di ricchezza. Siamo entrati in un periodo in cui è da mettere in discussione, da rimpiazzare, la nozione di valore su cui poi si basano anche i calcoli del cosiddetto prodotto interno lordo. Non è sufficiente affermare che qualcosa sia certa, affinché essa sia vera. Tuttalpiù possiamo dire: «C’è una certa probabilità che il problema sia definito in modo gestibile”, dal punto di vista manageriale. Non è la ricerca dell’incertezza o della certezza, è la gestione di un’incertezza legata alla vita, a quello che noi siamo, a come si costituisce il progresso. Futuribili, si è chiamato così su un’intuizione di tanti anni fa da parte di Bertrand de Jouvenel. Perché si è chiamato Futuribili? Perché non c’è un problema di un futuro determinista, ci sono delle alternative, e proprio perché c’è incertezza, c’è libertà. Non bisogna avere paura dell’incertezza della vostra vita. Le incertezze sono lo spazio che bisogna cercare di capire, ridurre e utilizzare per poter creare il futuro. Ogni volta che si fa un passo in avanti dal punto di vista tecnologico e dal punto di vista della conoscenza, accade quello che sosteneva Pascal. La gestione dei rischi, invece di diminuire, crea delle situazioni fondamentali di incertezza. Perciò si deve essere capaci: a) di accettare che quello che facciamo, le attività economiche in primo luogo, è basato sulla gestione dell’incertezza; b) di ridurre l’incertezza, si tratta di controllarla, si tratta di eliminarla, ma non si potrà mai eliminarla in maniera totale. La vita non è basata su questo. Tutta l’evoluzione è basata sugli adattamenti costanti nell’incertezza dell’ambiente che cambia addirittura le specie, forse addirittura noi in questo momento. L’economia, come pensava Adam Smith, è qualcosa di fondamentale per la società nel voler creare la ricchezza delle nazioni. Ciò è importante esplicitare perché, se non c’è ricchezza non si combatte la povertà. Poi c’è un problema di ingiustizia sociale e di distribuzione, trattato dall’autore, è l’aumento demografico. Nel 2050 sulla terra vi saranno nove miliardi di esseri umani, e ciò porta conseguenze sociali, per migrazioni, nuovi equilibri di età, rapporti fra società e classi sociali, ecc.
The word “growth” is on everyone’s lips, as if the Club of Rome had never existed and had never once spoken of limits to growth. What this means is that we are engaged in a thorough rethinking of the meaning of wealth, the value of society and economic value. Economics as we understand it was in a way founded by Adam Smith, who in 1776 published “The Wealth of Nations” (Smith 2010). Underlying the birth of modern economics is a need to express an ethical impulse. Adam Smith created economics. Perhaps Aurelio Peccei was another Adam Smith. Smith observed the rapid development of what came to be called the industrial manufacturing society. The opening pages of his book describe the production of a pin. It starts with the raw material, iron, which is subjected to a number of different processes, seventeen in all, leading to the final product. This was an ethical mission, something Smith was able to analyse and extrapolate with the basic message that with a certain type of organisation it was possible to make a whole range of tools, such as looms and the spinning jennies which would produce the textiles required for weaving. The report by the Club of Rome, written in 1980 by the author of this article, entitled “Dialogue on Wealth and Welfare”, emphasises the need to achieve a synthesis between the economy and ecology. Economics and the economic theories employed today have never been the result of an analysis of economic activity, that is to say how to use resources. Economics has never been perfect, it rather concerned itself with what may be termed priorities. The great difference between Adam Smith’s world in 1776 and 2008 is that manufacturing is no longer a determining force in wealth creation. We have entered a time when doubts must be raised about, and a replacement found for, the concept of value on which the calculation of such things as gross domestic product is based. The simple statement that something is certain does not make it true. The most we can say is “There is a certain probability that the question is defined in a manageable way” from a managerial point of view. This is not a quest for uncertainty or certainty, it is the management of an uncertainty bound up with life, with what we are, with what constitutes progress. Futuribili – “Futuribles” – is the name given many years ago to an intuition on the part of Bertrand de Jouvenel. Whence the name? The question is not one of a deterministic future because there are alternatives, and because there is uncertainty there is freedom. There is no need to fear uncertainty in our lives. Uncertainties are the space that must be understood, reduced and used to create the future. Whenever a step forward is made in technology and in consciousness, what Pascal said comes about. Risk management, instead of reducing risks, gives rise to situations of fundamental uncertainty. Which means we must be able a) to acknowledge that what we do, in economic activity first of all, is based on the management of uncertainty, and b) to reduce uncertainty, which can be controlled but never eliminated altogether. Life is not based on that. All evolution is based on constant adaptation in an environmental uncertainty that changes species – that may even be changing us at this moment. Economics, as Adam Smith maintained, is of crucial importance for society in its wish to create the wealth of nations. That has to be made clear, because without wealth, poverty cannot be defeated. Then there is the problem of social injustice and the distribution of wealth – discussed by the author – and the growing global population. In 2050 there will be nine billion human beings on Earth, which will bring social consequences in terms of migration, age balance, class relations and many other factors.
Source
Orio Giarini, "La ricchezza delle nazioni nel XXI secolo" in: "Futuribili. Rivista di studi sul futuro e di previsione sociale. 2022, n. 1/2, Vol. XXVII", EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, Trieste, 2022, pp. 51-64
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