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Il difficile percorso dalla guerra alla pace nel conflitto tra Ucraina e Russia
Tellia, Bruno
2024
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Abstract
War has been one of mankind’s principal activities since the dawn of history. So it is not surprising that we have seen the development of increasingly sophisticated tools and techniques to enable people to be ever-ready to attack or to defend themselves. The many attempts to set up structures for the peaceful resolution of conflicts, the containment of human aggression and the increase of cooperation have not produced the results hoped for. The path that leads to war therefore looks easy. Conversely, the path leading from war to peace is a very difficult one, since it is far from simple to find an agreement satisfactory to all the parties directly or indirectly involved. Theories and techniques of negotiation have been developed to favour the achievement of an agreement between warring parties based on the premise that each one should stand to gain by it –a win-win situation. If a war ends with a winner and a loser (win-lose) the conditions are created for subsequent conflicts. The author attempts to analyse the spaces available for a negotiation to bring an end to the war unleashed by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. The situation that has come about is so complex that a win-win outcome is highly unlikely, and a win-lose conlusion would bode ill for the prospects of peace in Europe. Absurd though it may seem, a lose-lose result would appear to be the most reasonable.
Fin dall’alba della storia la guerra è stata una delle principali occupazioni dell’umanità. Comprensibile, quindi, è che siano stati sviluppati strumenti e tecniche sempre più sofisticati per essere sempre pronti ad attaccare o difendersi. I tanti tentativi di creare strutture per risolvere pacificamente conflitti, contenere l’aggressività umana, accrescere la cooperazione non hanno prodotto i risultati sognati. Il percorso che porta alla guerra appare facile. Al contrario, il percorso che dalla guerra porta alla pace è molto difficile, perché non è semplice trovare un accordo soddisfacente per tutte le parti direttamente o indirettamente coinvolte. Sono state sviluppate teorie e tecniche di negoziazione per favorire il raggiungimento di un accordo tra le parti in conflitto, sulla base del presupposto che ognuna di essi ottenga qualche guadagno (win-win): se una guerra finisce con un vincitore e un perdente (win-lose) si creano le premesse per successivi conflitti. L’autore cerca di analizzare di quali spazi potrebbe disporre la negoziazione per porre termine all’invasione alla guerra scatenata dalla Federazione Russa con l’invasione dell’Ucraina. La situazione che si è venuta a creare è estremamente complessa e tale da rendere difficile arrivare ad un risultato win-win, mentre sarebbe gravido di pessime conseguenze per la pace in Europa una conclusione win-lose. Anche se può sembrare assurdo, un risultato lose-lose sembrerebbe quello più ragionevole.
War has been one of mankind’s principal activities since the dawn of history. So it is not surprising that we have seen the development of increasingly sophisticated tools and techniques to enable people to be ever-ready to attack or to defend themselves. The many attempts to set up structures for the peaceful resolution of conflicts, the containment of human aggression and the increase of cooperation have not produced the results hoped for. The path that leads to war therefore looks easy. Conversely, the path leading from war to peace is a very difficult one, since it is far from simple to find an agreement satisfactory to all the parties directly or indirectly involved. Theories and techniques of negotiation have been developed to favour the achievement of an agreement between warring parties based on the premise that each one should stand to gain by it –a win-win situation. If a war ends with a winner and a loser (win-lose) the conditions are created for subsequent conflicts. The author attempts to analyse the spaces available for a negotiation to bring an end to the war unleashed by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. The situation that has come about is so complex that a win-win outcome is highly unlikely, and a win-lose conlusion would bode ill for the prospects of peace in Europe. Absurd though it may seem, a lose-lose result would appear to be the most reasonable.
Source
Bruno Tellia, "Il difficile percorso dalla guerra alla pace nel conflitto tra Ucraina e Russia" in: "Futuribili. Rivista di studi sul futuro e di previsione sociale. 2022, n. 1/2, Vol. XXVII", EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste, Trieste, 2022, pp. 123-150
Languages
it
Rights
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
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