Futuribili. Rivista di studi sul futuro e di previsione sociale. 2017, n. 1, Vol. XXII

This year marks the 50^th anniversary of the appearance of Futuribili in Italy, and for about 40 years it has analysed Italy, the world and prediction methods in the hundred or more editions published from 1967 to 1974 and from 1994 to the present day. There is always “a need for prediction”, but in truth there are historical moments when this need is great and others in which prediction is all but superfluous because future events are implicit in the current orientation. This unevenness in the need for prediction is reflected in the history of Futuribili, coinciding with the forms it has taken over time. If this is the heart of the current need for prediction, for Futuribili it is more essential than ever to rethink its framework and structure, to broaden its target to a large number of groups, to reach a target readership that is sensitive to effective solutions to the problems posed.

This tribute to Igor Bestuzhev-Lada takes the form of an analysis of his relationship with Alberto Gasparini: two halves of a whole who carried out a number of initiatives concerning the prediction of the future. In this case, we are interested in those initiatives involving Bestuzhev-Lada which lead to the development of predictive studies in Italy, in particular at the ISIG in Gorizia and at the University of Trieste. As director of the ISIG and of the Department of Human Sciences at the University of Trieste, the author focuses on the efforts to build a network of relations with futurologists and to conduct research on futures studies. Joint initiatives with Bestuzhev-Lada were set up in Madrid, Moscow, Gorizia and Trieste (1990-1992), with exchanges of researchers between Italy and Moscow. The first events (congresses, conferences, summer schools, etc.) started dialogue and thus paved the way for the refoundation of the Italian journal “Futuribili” (1994). The third phase saw the foundation of the International Futures Researches Academy (1999-2000) based in Gorizia, which institutionalised the collaboration with Igor Bestuzhev-Lada and the Russian Futures Studies Academy of Moscow. This actually was a highly complex operation, involving the dissemination in international academic circles of the idea of social prediction, the gathering of support and enrolments, the formulation of initiatives, programmes and of the articles of constitution. The following years saw the launch of activities, first of all at the ISIG in Gorizia and at the RFSA in Moscow, and participation in events by members of IFRA. The activities included the publication of books and of the journal “Fututribili”, complementary research projects in Italy and Russia, joint international summer schools and the organisation of conferences and congresses.

The author describes the cultural and operational context of the Club of Rome, starting from the visionary and innovative figure of Aurelio Peccei. Born in 1908, his story is traced from his childhood in Turin and his employment at FIAT, followed by his career as an international business manager. Together with a group of internationally innovative personalities, in the 1960s he collaborated with Pietro Ferraro in the foundation of “Futuribili”, and in 1968 founded the Club of Rome with Alexander King. In the fraught and contradictory climate of those years, the principle objective of both initiatives was the formulation of predictions which would enable individuals in positions of power to shape the future of the world. The exercise of prediction comprised a number of methods, ranging from intuition to simulation. Carried out according to the latter method, the Club’s first research project saw the light of day in the form of the book The limits to growth (1972). It was a controversial work, attracting, like the Club of Rome itself, a good deal of criticism. The author’s analysis illustrates the method of simulation and the macrovariables used, along with their levels and states of flow. It then turns to the modifications applied to the research in 1992 and 2004, and the subsequent reports of a more qualitative nature. It emerges how over time the Club of Rome became a source of research and operational indications for decision makers and also for educators. Lastly, the author analyses Aurelio Peccei’s testament Club of Rome. Agenda for the end of the Century, published shortly before his death in 1984.

Following a conceptual definition of prediction, emphasising its scientific character, the author concentrates on the links between utopia and prediction, pointing out that modern society is shifting the focus from the “perfection of utopia” to the “workshop of the process”. Unlike traditional society, in modern society change is conceptualised as a normal factor, structurally integrated in the trajectory towards the future, as a result of which it requires different approaches and new methods. The second part of the article is devoted to methods of prediction, reviewing objective and quantitative techniques, qualitative techniques and those which prove to be ambivalent.

The relationship between water and religion is ancient, has deep roots and takes place along routes that seem to be characteristic for every religious expression. We may come to say that water and religion are almost synonymous: both come from the heavens; the one and the other have to do with time. But above all, there are plenty of strictly religious uses of water as an essential component of some ceremonies, such as blessings, consecrations and exorcisms. Water washes, cleans what is unclean, especially sin. Water is life, purification, regeneration. This gives rise to numerous possibilities of development. Immersion in water is a return to the origins, with an outcome that creates strength and purity. A pilgrimage can involve crossing a river, especially near the place of arrival. However, the most difficult problem to solve remains: there is still a wide gap between those who have sufficient water resources and those who have to look for alternative solutions, with huge efforts and poor results.