Il metodo econometrico per la previsione della domanda di trasporto aereo

Abstract

The subject of this study is the formulation of a multivariable econometric model for making plausible development hypotheses on the demand for air transport with respect to a number of socio-economic variables. The influence of these variables has been checked on the basis of the data for previous years. The regression curve of the model has been chosen among several alternative hypotheses, as a function of the value of certain indicators. Having specified the confidence intervals and the variance of forecast errors, one can obtain the value of the future demand as a function of the foreseeable socio-economic scenario. By adopting the same criteria one can try to assess the foreseeable evolution of the three components of total passenger traffic (national, international, and intercontinental), and thereby formulate some hypotheses on future distribution trends.