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Title: A design methodology for scenario-analysis in urban freight modeling
Authors: Ambrosini, Christian
Gonzalez-Feliu, Jesus
Toilier, Florence
Keywords: urban goods movementtransport modellingscenario constructionurban policydecision support
Issue Date: 9-Jul-2013
Publisher: EUT Edizioni Università di Trieste
Source: Ambrosini, C., Gonzalez-Feliu, J., Toilier, F. (2013) A design methodology for scenario-analysis in urban freight modeling, European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, 54, Paper n° 7
Series/Report no.: European Transport / Trasporti Europei
Urban goods movement modelling is a popular subject in urban lo
gistics research. However, most
models remain under
used because practitioners have difficulties to apply them to simulate urban policies
and their impacts on transport flows, mainly when the assessed situations are different from the initial
usage of the
mode. This paper aims to answer to that issue by proposing a methodology of scenario
construction and assessment using current models and tools. The methodological contribution of the
paper arises on defining the main elements of a policy
based scenario an
d on developing a procedure to
build the inputs a model needs to simulate the impacts of policy
oriented strategies on urban goods
transport flows. First, the main elements policy makers can take into account when defining middle term
strategies are identi
fied. Then, a scenario construction procedure is proposed, able to build reference
scenarios and trend scenarios. An example for the urban area of Lyon is proposed. According to the
reference scenario, it becomes possible to compare and understand urban go
ods movement changes, by
implementing the model introducing variations, such as activity relocation or urban distribution centre
whose impacts concern not only the freight flows themselves but also the whole urban logistics
organisation. In this way, the p
roposed methodology is adapted to policy
oriented strategic and tactical
planning, mainly for public stakeholders.
Type: Article
ISSN: 1825-3997
Appears in Collections:European Transport / Trasporti Europei (2013) 54

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